The local weather patterns (winds and precipitation) drive the circulations in the lake and the transport, dispersion, and depositorn of materials through the atmosphere. The lake also feeds back and affects the local atmospheric circulation. Materials introduced into the lake (directly or through atmospheric deposition) feed into the water supply at the intakes.



The NOAA/NWS operational model forecast for surface conditions (sea level pressure, blue; thickness, a measure of temperature, yellow) at 0000 UTC 23 April 2003.



The CWS MM5 forecast, valid for the same time as the NOAA/NWS operational model forecast. Shown are surface winds (at one-fourth the available resolution) and temperature (color shading and contours, every 2°C).

Project Summary:
The objective of the first year of this project was to establish a real-time, mesoscale (4 mile resolution) Lake Michigan and environs atmospheric forecast system. The forecasts are available out to 60 hours range and are updated four times per day. This system surpasses any currently available configuration, both locally and nationally, and is positioned to account for the local scale circulation structures that affect atmospheric and lake transport in the Great Lakes.

The modeling (including fully automated data acquisition, model initialization, launch and postprocessing) is accomplished using a customized version of the PSU/NCAR MM5. This system includes a multi-dimensional visualization capability (VIS5D) to perform more detailed investigations, including calculation of back-trajectories from any target point for source identification.

This system is being linked to a dispersion-deposition model, to conduct rigorous realtime assessments of the fate of hazardous materials in the region. Output from the model will also be used to drive a circulation model of Lake Michigan in order to determine the history of contaminants within that water body. This work benefited from existing, NSF funded relationships between the PI and scientists at the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Laboratory. This work sets the stage for fully-coupled lake-atmospheric modeling, which given available fuinding, will be accomplished in year two of the Center for Water Security.